Last call. Dernière heure. French. Election. Française

For English press 1. If that doesn’t work (and it won’t) just scroll down to the English version. Please. 🙂

Version Française

Ben, j’avions voté. Ma Doué, comme eut dit ma grand-mère Gallo de Piré-sur-Seiche (Ille-et-Villaine). Comme je le disais dans mon “post” précédent, aux Amériques on a voté Samedi. Beaucoup de monde. Une heure de queue quand même, au Lycée Français. Les mines sérieuses. On verra d’main les résultats. J’ai mis à jour les derniers sondages et Google Trends dans le Graphique suivant:

GF2

Un graphique simple comme je les aime. Axe horizontal: l’intérêt pour les candidats. Cette variable mesure le volume de recherches sur Google. Combien de fois dans la journée d’hier, les internautes ont tapé “Macron” sur Google. Ou Le Pen, ou Fillon ou Mélenchon. Sur l’axe vertical se trouvent les pourcentages d’intention de vote exprimés pour les mêmes candidats Vendredi. Source: Opinionway. (Ceux-là ou un autre sondeur, les résultats sont pareils. A peu prés.)

Que voit-on dans ce graphique? L’intention de vote est pratiquement la même pour tous: de 23 à 21% pour Macron, Le Pen, Fillon, respectivement. 18% pour Mélenchon. En termes statistiques, ils sont pareils. Par contre, quand on regarde l’axe horizontal, l’intérêt pour les candidats, les choses changent. Macron est largement en tête à 63, devant Fillon, 56 et Mélenchon, 55. (Quand même) Le Pen loin derrière, à 32 d’intérêt. Mon analyse de ce graphique? Nous pourrions avoir un 2e tour Macron-Fillon, rejetant les extrêmes, ce qui serait un double bonne nouvelle pour la France et le monde. J’espère ne pas me tromper.

Demain, allez voter. Pour qui vous voudrez, bien sûr. Mais réfléchissez bien? Qui peut mieux diriger la France demain? Qui peut remettre la France dans le Monde (sans jouer au petit village Gaulois qui résiste à l’envahisseur Romain)? La question demain, n’est pas identitaire, n’est pas vos retraites ou la Sécu, ou les immigrés. La question demain, pensez-y bien, est: quel doit être le rôle et la place de la France dans le Monde?

2016-08-02 13.15.06-A

Le penseur de Rodin, par Munch. Et oui, c’était ça ou “Le cri”. Musée Rodin, Paris.

English version:

Now, My faithful english-speaking friends. Tomorrow the French will vote for President. A critical vote, not just for France, but for the world. If anyone of the extremes wins, France may (there still is a second round) exit the European Union. That would be the end of EU. The greatest market in the world, a space of more than 500 million people who have managed to avoid war for the past 70 years. Jamais-vu (the contrary of déjà vu) in European history. (Excluding the post Yugoslavia wars). A place, where democracy has survived, thrived and progressed. And a factor of stability on the planet. If Le Pen or Mélenchon win, it may be the end of EU. I voted to-day, one day ahead, because of time difference. I never post on week-ends. Today is an exception. I have updated the poll data and the Google interest data in the following graph:

GF1

Horizontal axis measures the interest for the top 4 candidates. That is, the number of times someone has Googled Macron (centre left), Fillon (centre right), Le Pen (far right) or Mélenchon (far left) on April 21st. The vertical axis measures the voting intention in one of the last polls published the same day, yesterday.

As we can see, polling vote intent is very close: Macron (23%), Le Pen (22%), Fillon (21%), Mélenchon (18%). Practically equal in statistical terms. Now if we look at Interest, things spread out: Macron leads in interest at 63, followed by Fillon (56) practically tied with Mélenchon (55) and Le Pen lagging behind at 32. The latter would be extremely good news, but as I commented in the previous post Le Pen voters are probably not heavy Internet users.

What does the data suggest? A Macron win in this first round, followed by Fillon. That would be my analysis. And hope too: the extremes would be eliminated and the French could then vote in the second round on two reasonable programmes with a strong European content.

My – personal – message to my compatriots? Go and vote tomorrow. (No abstention please). But when you do, think well. Think who can best govern France tomorrow? Who can put the country back in the world? The question tomorrow, is not identity, it is not about pensions or social security or immigrants. It is about France’s place and role IN the world. Not outside.

The two versions are slightly different. No time to really translate exactly. But both versions have the same message: THINK!

2016-08-02 13.15.06-A

Rodin’s Thinker by Edward Munch. Yep. It was that or the Scream. Musée Rodin, Paris. 2016.

Thank you for bearing with me on a week-end. I will be biting my nails until tomorrow, 1PM, central, 8PM Paris time, when the results come out. (I hope it won’t be a scream). Enjoy the rest of your week-end.

64 thoughts on “Last call. Dernière heure. French. Election. Française

    • 🙂 Yes and no my dear Dragos. Yes, because all politicos are crooked (99%). Yes, because how much does my voice or vote weigh divided by 47 million voters? Close to nothing.
      No, it DOES matter, because it takes a thousand years to build a nation; it took 3o years to rebuild France, and Europe after WWII while a single idiot can bring a country dow in just a few years: Chavez in Venezuela? Peron in Argentina? Miterrand brought France to its knees in only 18 months in 1981: 3 devaluations, control of exchange, etc. So if one or the other idiot comes to power, France can go down in a couple of years… Results in 30 minutes. Be good.

      • So there is no hope but there will be truth? 😉
        Good.
        Not sure what you mean about “experimental” but I see dictatorship on the rise everywhere…

      • I meant truth will come to you in time. 😉

        It’s complicated to explain the situation at a global scale. Let’s just say there will be no more individuals with absolute power over their people. The new “leaders” will only be beacons of power receiving orders from the command center, and escape goats at the same time. Puppets on a string. That’s why I said it doesn’t really matter. Because, really, it doesn’t.

      • Why buy a country when you can steal it…? 🙄
        But don’t worry, most small countries are bought (or stolen) already – they just don’t realize it, because everything is “politically correct”. Gah, that’s another can of worms I don’t wanna open.

      • Dangerous? Nah, just watched some wrong movies maybe. 😀
        I’ll leave the choice of the recipe to you since we’re at chez Brieuc. 😉

      • Oh, so Robbery got a new, politically-correct name…? 🙄 Argh, don’t get me started. 😉

      • The propensity of idiots leading nations seems to be increasing with time. I agree that it DOES matter and the more engaged the public is in the choices that will shape their nation, fewer idiots will get to dismantle decades of hard work. I suspect the lack of civic education in public schools contributes to a generation devoid of understanding of the Democratic political process.

      • There is a place for academia and a place for practical application. Scientists vs Engineers. The problem arises when the roles and skills do not match the temperament of the individual or the organisation. In my short lived experience reframing issues and changing communication styles eliminates 80% of perceived idiocy. Unfortunately everything seems to move on a different time scale and with the advent of technology it appears mankind has become an expert at finding new ways to repeat the same mistakes…

      • Scientists vs. engineers… Reminds me of Asimo’s Foundation. Reframing issues? Yeeees. Sometimes all it takes is to reformulate what the other has said to make sure we understand. Not so sure about “style” though. Hmmm. Ok. I think I understand: there are very different communication styles from one place to the other. Codes that need to be learned. germans clap on the table in lieu of applauding. 🙂 maybe, it is time to slow down and listen again? A friend just said on this blog that people are switching to the extremes which allows nutty leaders to emerge. Very good point. Not the question is: why are people switching to the extremes? They’re not all bad. There has to be a reason. To be continued… 🙂

      • Some theories… People are NOT switching to extremes its just that outliers jump out and once we start identifying outliers (extremes) confirmation bias kicks in.
        If people ARE switching to extremes, human behaviour dictates they are either pursuing positive rewards or avoiding pain (or perhaps both?). Given that the middle class has been shrinking alarmingly (the “buffer zone” of society), we have more people in the polar ends of what should be a healthy a continuum. What allows individuals to move forward in such circumstances? The spectre of hope. This allows otherwise rational individuals to make irrational choices. Even if aforementioned individuals are made aware of their irrational choice, they will suspend logic and continue to exercise irrational thought processes…

      • Wow. My dear linguist… Very good points. Not sure about outliers, but, yes if middle class is shrinking (is it?) extremes are growing, from the outside in. Confirmation bias is another name for “Alternate facts” and the fact is it is becoming more and more difficult to have any rational discussion. Present company excluded. 🙂 And Dragos would say that Hope is a ghost anyway. 😦
        But surely, something can be done? (I refuse to give up)

      • metrocosm.com is a wonderful site for data visualisation and it effectively represents the erosion of the middle class in America. Max Galka does impressive work with raw data…

      • Veeery impressive, “Soleil”. Most cities go from a – somewhat – normal distribution to an increase in extremes. Exceptions – a a quick glance – would be San Diego, Frisco and DC… Thank you for the tip. Merci. 🙂

  1. This is exactly the reason why I don’t like having so many candidates….. the election of the Philippines ‘ Duterte, a murdering bastard who wants to be a dictator , happened because there were 5 candidates.

    • Agreed. Duterte is a bastard. One of many. Now I imagine there’s only one round in Philippines, right? In France there are two. Second round is in 2 weeks, with only the top 2 candidates. Which makes sure who wins has at least 50%+, and not 27%.

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